October 14, 2019

Bloom Forecast October 14 - October 21

The HAB season is coming to an end, but slowly: algal blooms can still occur at Detroit Lake. Weather forecasts suggest that water temperatures at the lake will continue to decline, discouraging further growth, but our models still indicate that there may be the chance of a HAB. image-center Probability of occurrence (%) of different algal concentrations (left) and whether a toxin will be present in the water (right) in the next week (note that the toxin predictions are still highly experimental, and correspond to water at the lake before transport and treatment).

Latest lake conditions

Water samples were analyzed last week for nutrients and algal concentrations. In addition, information on the weather was collected. These data are presented below as a percentage of their historical maximum. image-center
Last sampled conditions at Detroit Lake, including the weather (temperature, wind, rain and sunlight) as well as the total concentration of algae (log transformed), nutrients (total phosphates and nitrates) and toxins (N/A denotes unavailable data).

Where we are in the season

Past bloom seasons have typically ended at this point in the year. However, some toxic algal activity has been detected at the lake and is being monitored. As we move through October we can expect the algae levels to decline as cooler weather arrives and sunlight diminishes. image-center Number of algal blooms since 2013, for each month in the year.